MV#12 — The Long Now — Peter Schwartz

The future, like everything else, is no longer quite what it used to be. By that I mean we can no longer think of it with any confidence in our inductions.

Paul Valéry

A pretty good way of predicting the weather is to say: tomorrow is going to be like today.

This simple induction used to be generally effective at predicting the state of the world years into the future. For hundreds of years, things changed slowly. Innovations were infrequent and spread inchmeal. Population, culture, and the atmosphere, all were static decade-to-decade. We now see rapid change.

It’s hard to contemplate what now? let alone what next?

Peter Schwartz is a futurist, SVP for Scenario Planning at Salesforce, author of The Art of Long View, and a founder of the Long Now Foundation. He thinks about the future, both envisioning its many possibilities and harnessing these scenarios to answer the question: what do we do now?

In this conversation, we discuss the Long Clock, working with Steven Spielberg, what the future may hold (the ISS becoming a hotel?) what is inevitable (we cannot avoid accelerating climate change over the next decade, we must adapt as well as driving down emissions) and how we think carefully about the future.


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